Total Investment
$225M
5-Year Revenue
$342M
IRR Range
48-58%
Payback Period
46 Months
Customer Pipeline & Market Validation
Pipeline Summary
$12.8M
Total Pipeline Value
5
Active Prospects
$7.2M
Probability-Adjusted
1
LOI Signed
| Company | Segment | Stage | Deal Size | Timeline | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Bank (Fortune 500) | Financial Services | LOI Signed | $2.8M | Q2 2025 deployment | 90% |
| Biotech Research Corp | Technology/Biotech | Advanced Negotiations | $4.2M | Q3 2025 deployment | 75% |
| Healthcare Network | Healthcare | Proposal Submitted | $1.8M | Q4 2025 deployment | 60% |
| Manufacturing Corp | Manufacturing | Technical Evaluation | $1.4M | Q1 2026 deployment | 45% |
| Government Agency | Government | RFP Response | $2.6M | Q2 2026 deployment | 55% |
Customer Acquisition Economics & Sales Efficiency
| Customer Segment | Avg Deal | CAC | LTV | LTV:CAC | Sales Cycle | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | $2.1M | $85K | $8.4M | 99:1 | 4-6 months | 14 mo |
| Technology/Biotech | $3.2M | $125K | $12.8M | 102:1 | 3-5 months | 12 mo |
| Healthcare | $1.6M | $65K | $6.4M | 98:1 | 5-7 months | 15 mo |
| Government | $2.4M | $95K | $9.6M | 101:1 | 6-12 months | 18 mo |
| Manufacturing | $1.4M | $55K | $5.6M | 102:1 | 4-6 months | 16 mo |
$85K
Average CAC
All customer segments
100:1
Average LTV:CAC
Industry target: 3:1+
5.2 months
Avg Sales Cycle
Weighted by deal size
Timeline to Profitability Analysis - 27MW Maximum Capacity
Maximum Site Utilization Strategy
With maximum site buildout (27MW total capacity) and $225M investment, we've modeled three realistic scenarios for timeline to profitability based on market conditions, customer acquisition rates, and operational efficiency improvements.
Conservative Scenario
2029 Q1
Break-even Timeline
Customer Acquisition: Slow ramp-up
Utilization Rate: 65% by year 3
Market Conditions: Challenging economic environment
Sales Cycle: 8-12 months average
Financial Projections:
2027 Revenue:$26M
2028 Revenue:$38M
2029 Revenue:$45M
Break-even Month:Month 49
Cumulative Cash Flow:Break-even (Q1 2029)
Base Case Scenario
2028 Q4
Break-even Timeline
Customer Acquisition: Steady growth (per model)
Utilization Rate: 85% by year 3
Market Conditions: Stable economic environment
Sales Cycle: 5-7 months average
Financial Projections (Actual Model):
2027 Revenue:$26M
2028 Revenue:$41M
2029 Revenue:$45M
Break-even Month:Month 46
Cumulative Cash Flow:+$22M (2028)
Accelerated Growth
2028 Q2
Break-even Timeline
Customer Acquisition: Rapid adoption
Utilization Rate: 95% by year 3
Market Conditions: Strong AI/Cloud growth
Sales Cycle: 3-5 months average
Financial Projections:
2027 Revenue:$32M
2028 Revenue:$52M
2029 Revenue:$62M
Break-even Month:Month 42
Cumulative Cash Flow:+$15M (Q2 2028)
Mathematical Defense & Risk Analysis
Break-even Calculation Methodology
Total Investment: $225M (across 3 sites, 27MW total)
Annual Operating Costs: $25M (OpEx + debt service)
Break-even Revenue Required: $38M annually
Cash Flow Positive: When annual revenue exceeds $38M
From Model: 2028 shows $41M revenue = +$22M cash flow
Timeline Validation:
• Construction: Jan 2025 - Mar 2027 (26 months)
• Operations start: Mar 2027 (Month 26)
• Break-even: Q4 2028 (Month 46)
• 20 months from operations to profitability
Scenario Probability Assessment
Conservative (2029 Q1):
25% probability
Base Case (2028 Q4):
50% probability
Accelerated (2028 Q2):
25% probability
Weighted Average Timeline:
2028 Q4 (Month 46)
Matches base financial model projections
Investment Summary & Returns
Total Investment
$225M
27MW across 3 sites (max capacity)
5-Year Revenue
$342M
Maximum capacity operations
Blended ROI
52%
Portfolio average
IRR
52%
Internal rate of return
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